SEESAC. 2004 ‘Illegal guns in Macedonia (2003).’ SEESAC A Fragile Peace: Guns and Security in Post-Conflict Macedonia (2004), pp. 18-19. Belgrade: South Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SEESAC). 4 January

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A better estimate of overall civilian possession of firearms (both legal and illegal) may be based on the results of the 1,157-person household survey conducted throughout Macedonia in June 2003.

In that survey, 15.6 per cent of respondents admitted to personally owning a gun (a possible underestimate, given that 3.7 per cent answered 'don't know' or refused to answer). Assuming that the household survey is representative and accurate, we can base an estimate of gun possession on the last official and uncontroversial Macedonian census of 1994, which lists a population of 1,945,932 residents. By subtracting the 0–14 year age group not included in the household survey (which comprises approximately 21% of the population), we get a total of 1,537,286 residents. Of that figure, 15.6 per cent represents an estimated 239,817 individuals who admit to owning a gun (plus 0 to 56,680 respondents who answered 'don't know' or refused to answer). MOI statistics suggest that 139,857 firearms are legally registered in Macedonia (see above).

Assuming, therefore, that the gun owners we identified via the household survey own only one gun, we can calculate a range of about 100,000 (239,817 minus 139,857) to 160,000 (296,497 minus 139,857) illegal weapons in the country.

As stated, the above estimate assumes that those who admit to gun ownership possess only one gun. It is quite possible that Macedonian citizens own more than one gun on average. Additional estimates based on multiple gun ownership, therefore, could be much higher. Assuming that Macedonian gun owners possess 1.5 guns, for example, would yield a range of 220,000 to 300,00 illegal weapons. An assumption that Macedonian gun owners keep two weapons, on average, would yield a figure of 340,000 to 450,000 illegal guns.

At a minimum then, we can be confident that our lower threshold of illegal weapons in Macedonia is 100,000. The upper, less convincing, threshold, would be 450,000.

Table 3.5 Illegal guns in Macedonia
Levels of confidence: Guns per owners - Lower threshold - Upper threshold
High confidence: 1 - 100000 - 160000
Medium confidence: 1.5 - 220000 - 300000
Low confidence: 2 - 340000 - 450000

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