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Karp, Aaron. 2002 ‘Red Flags and Buicks: Global Firearm Stockpiles.’ Small Arms Survey 2002: Counting the Human Cost, pp. 98-99. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 1 July

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In reality the total of unlicensed firearms in the Philippines appears to be substantially greater than the confirmed figure. The real picture is suggested by the apparent fact that unlicensed firearms, although supposedly less common than legally owned guns, are involved in over 92 per cent of resolved criminal firearms cases (Philippine National Police, 2001). This disparity leads to the conclusion that the total number of unlicensed firearms must be much greater than registration statistics suggest.

If any gun has an equal chance of being used in a crime, the total number of unlicensed firearms would have to be over 20 times greater than currently known by the police to account for the disparity. But in reality not all firearms are equally likely to be used in crime. Assuming that unlicensed firearms are twice as likely to be used in crime, their total probably is closer to 4.2 million. When added to the total of licensed weapons, this indicates the existence of approximately 5.3 million privately owned guns in the Philippines.

ID: Q1072

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